According to Barack Obama's website, "Middle class families will see their taxes cut – and no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase. The typical middle class family will receive well over $1,000 in tax relief under the Obama plan, and will pay tax rates that are 20% lower than they faced under President Reagan. According to the Tax Policy Center, the Obama plan provides three times as much tax relief for middle class families as the McCain plan."
Barack Obama and Joe Biden: The Change We Need | Taxes, 11/04/08
In 2007, I paid just under 24% on my taxable income (contrast that with the shade-under-14% that my wife paid for her self-employment income...and she didn't make much less than I did!). Okay, so do I understand correctly that, if my tax rate is going to be 20% lower, I should expect to see my tax rate drop to just a hair under 20%? And my wife should have a tax rate of around 11%? We'll see about that, if Obama is elected.
Back in August, the
Tax Policy Center (a nonpartisan think tank in D.C.) commented that "[n]either candidate’s [tax] plan would significantly increase economic growth unless offset by spending cuts or tax increases that the campaigns have not specified." Then, according to an Oct 15 article by Matt Cover of the Cybercast News Service, the TPC reported that Obama's tax cut plan would actually
increase spending! Woah! We're going the wrong way here, folks! More recently, the TPC opined that "[m]ost of the [candidates'] proposals are very poorly targeted and would do very little to address the fundamental problems caused by the economic downturn. The proposal to eliminate tax on some or all unemployment benefits, for example, which is supported in different forms by both candidates, would most help unemployed workers who have substantial other income. A better option would be to extend unemployment benefits for workers who suffer long spells of unemployment. Most of the other proposals would do little good and could have unintended and counterproductive side effects."
TPC: The Presidential Candidates' New Tax Proposals - October 27, 2008.Finally, the latest word from the TPC leaves me wondering what the hell these gentlemen hope to accomplish:
Tax policy has been a major issue in the Presidential election campaign, with both candidates proposing extensive changes. The candidates take very different approaches to tax policy. The main differences are two: first, McCain’s plans would reduce revenues by significantly more than Obama’s; and second, McCain’s would be substantially less progressive, especially among very high income taxpayers. From the standpoint of growth or simplicity, both plans disappoint. It is hard to believe that either set of changes would have significant growth effects on the economy. TPC: Taxes under Obama and McCain - November 3, 2008.
So, it doesn't sound like either candidate has the silver bullet that'll stop the galloping ghost, a.k.a. the recession.
If lowering taxes is likely to require an increase in spending, where is the money going to come from? Trying to squeeze it out of the wealthiest 5-10% of the population isn't likely to be fruitful; those are the folks who fill the breadbaskets of the PACs and other lobbyists who, in turn, grease the wheels of the House and Senate. If the Democrats manage to take control of both legislative bodies (they need two more seats in the Senate to make it filibuster-proof), that may be helpful in the short run, but the backlash - namely, the amount of dollars that this same segment of society routinely donates to charities that serve the poorest in our society - could be brutal. It's a vicious circle.
In the end, I think a lot of votes will swing away from McCain over his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate. I think there were plenty of other women who are more savvy, more refined, more
intelligent than Gov. Palin. One of my brothers confided, yesterday, that he lost respect for McCain over that decision. None of my other four brothers has commented, lately, on who they like for the next president. I think two of them may be Obama supporters and another may choose McCain.
Neither of these gentlemen will have an easy road ahead. Both of them are quite well qualified in terms of character and professional ability; both of them have sufficient experience on The Hill; both of them are surrounded by advisers who are specialists with many more good ideas. Some have argued that Obama doesn't have enough experience, but that he has more charisma than does McCain. Others have argued that McCain has more experience than Obama, but has domestic and foreign policies that seem more in line with the outgoing administration than many are comfortable with.
As a country, we're stuck with the reality of a failed economic plan that's not just the product of "Dubyuh's" poor judgement. Much of the failure is due to greed and ignorance and conceit. We're a land of idiots who can't pass up something that sounds too good to be true because, you just never know, maybe dreams really
do come true.
My wife and I have been watching DVDs of
The Waltons with our kids, at home. Life during the Great Depression. I'll bet a lot of folks who lived through that period never thought they'd see anything like that again - not in their lifetime! But the lessons that our parents learned during that dark period don't seem to have been carried forward by the Baby Boomers and beyond. I think it's possible that we could find ourselves there again - another Great Depression. We've got to start taking moral responsibility for our actions before we find ourselves at the bottom of a dry well.
I don't think it really matters who we elect, this time. No president (or vice president) is going to save us from ourselves. Either person - Obama or McCain - is going to have a very difficult time and we're going to suffer right along with them.
I think the only way for me to make a choice, this time, is to bring a coin along with me into the voting booth. Heads we lose, tails we lose.
